Allies of the World
The recent controversies around the world have prompted World War 3 in discussions quite a few times, but where does power really lie and which countries will ally with one another?
After World War 2, an intergovernmental organisation, the United Nations (UN) was established to promote international co-operation in order to prevent another global conflict. There are 193 member states currently; that’s pretty much every country so in theory another world war should be impossible!
In addition, most countries among themselves have collective security (CS), the UN is the largest form of CS. CS can be understood as a security arrangement in which each state
in the system accepts that the security of one is the concern of all, and therefore commits to a collective response to threats to, and breaches to peace. However, while collective security is an idea with a long history, its implementation in practice has proved problematic. A recent example is how Russia occupied Crimea illegally thus breaching international law, yet not much was done.
“All war is a symptom of mans failure as a thinking animal” – John Steinback
Major Treaties and Pacts Around the World
Let’s have a look at treaties and pacts around the world to begin with.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) is an intergovernmental military alliance which was signed on 4 April 1949. Article (5) of the treaty, requires member states to come to the aid of any member state subject to an armed attack. The current members are:
|Germany||United States||United Kingdom|
|Denmark inc||Faroe Islands||Greenland|
The following countries have been designated as major non-NATO allies of the United States:
|Major non-NATO allies:|
|New Zealand||South Korea||Jordan|
The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) is the world’s largest security-oriented intergovernmental organisation. Its mandate includes issues such as arms control and the promotion of human rights. The OSCE takes a comprehensive approach to the politico-military dimension of security, which includes a number of commitments by participating States and mechanisms for conflict prevention and resolution. For Eg:
Arms control – The end of the Cold War resulted in a huge amount of surplus weapons becoming available in what is known as the international grey market for weapons. The OSCE helps to stop the – often illegal – spread of such weapons and offers assistance with their destruction.
Military reform – The OSCE’s Forum for Security Co-operation provides a framework for political dialogue on military reform, while practical activities are conducted by field operations, as well as the Conflict Prevention Centre.
Policing – OSCE police operations are an integral part of the organization’s efforts in conflict prevention and post-conflict rehabilitation.
It would be interesting to see where interests lie once a war is over. At the moment , it stands impartial but through manipulation, any of the major nations, may want it to back them i.e the west using propaganda to encourage the OSCE to favour them over the Russians.
Although the EU is an economic and social model, there have been proposals to set up an army, navy and air force. EU combined, could overthrow America.
A military force that consists of 60,000 troops pledged for deployment for organisations such as UN, NATO and OSCE for rapid-response missions by the EU. Rapid reaction forces are designed to intervene quickly as a spearhead to gain and hold ground in quickly unfolding combat or in rather low intensity conflicts, such as uprisings that necessitate the evacuation of foreign embassies. They’re a bit like a SWAT team.
Five countries participate as Eurocorps Framework Nations: France, Germany, Spain, Luxembourg and Belgium.
Additionally, four states are Eurocorps Associated Nations: Greece, Italy, Poland and Turkey, which have pledged to contribute personnel to the staff.
In addition, the Netherlands and United Kingdom have sent liaison officers to the Eurocorps headquarters to be part of the treaty.
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
The SCO is an Eurasian political, economic and military organisation which was founded in 2001 in Shanghai by the leaders of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Somewhat equivalent to the EU.
The Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance (Rio Treaty) is an agreement signed by many countries in America. The central principle contained in its articles is that an attack against one is to be considered an attack against them all; this was known as the “hemispheric defense” doctrine. The following countries are members:
|Argentina||Dominican Republic||El Salvador|
|Peru||Trinidad and Tobago|
The Australia, New Zealand, United States Security Treaty (ANZUS) is the military alliance which binds Australia and New Zealand and, separately, Australia and the United States to co-operate on defence matters in the Pacific Ocean area. Thus they would collaborate together in that part of the region by treaty.
AUSCANNZUKUS is a naval Command, Control, Communications and Computers (The C4) interoperability organization involving the Anglosphere nations of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Basically, these guys will have good communication on sea.
North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) is a combined organization of the United States and Canada that provides aerospace warning, air sovereignty, and defence for the North American continent. These countries combined means any attack on the US from either side will result to utter destruction of that country. If Russia wanted to attack, they’d have to cunningly enter the aerospace.
Missile Defence Systems
These countries have a missile defence system so if there are any incoming missiles such as intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBMs) they can deploy their own defences. The United States, Russia, France, India and Israel have all developed missile defence systems. Just means another obstacle.
USA & Israel
Military relations between Israel and the United States have been consistently close, reflecting shared security interests in the Middle East. Thus will closely back each other.
USA & Philippine
The Mutual Defense Treaty Between the Republic of the Philippines and the United States of America contains eight articles that dictate both nations will support each other if either the Philippines or the United States were to be attacked by an external party. Philippines is surrounded by Muslim countries, maybe this is Americas way in making sure they have ‘legal’ right to intervene.
Lancaster House Treaties
The Lancaster House Treaties of 2010 are two treaties between the United Kingdom and France for defence and security cooperation; The sharing and pooling of materials and equipment including through mutual interdependence, the building of joint facilities, mutual access to each other’s defence markets, and industrial and technological co-operation. In other words a joint force, think of it as Captain America and Wonder Woman.
The Anglo-Portuguese Alliance, ratified at the Treaty of Windsor in 1386, between England (succeeded by the United Kingdom) and Portugal is the oldest alliance in the world which is still in force, importantly enforced during WW1 and WW2.
The Economic Community of West African States Monitoring Group (ECOMOG) is a West African multilateral armed force established by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). ECOMOG is a formal arrangement for separate armies to work together. From countries like – Nigeria, Guinea, Sierra Leone, The Gambia, Liberia, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and others.
Regional Security System
The Regional Security System (RSS) is an international agreement for the defence and security of the eastern Caribbean region. The current member nations are: Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Dominica, Grenada, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
The Arab League as an Organization has no military force, like the UN or EU, but recently in the 2007 summit, the Leaders decided to reactivate their joint defense and establish a peacekeeping force to deploy in South Lebanon, Darfur, Iraq, Somalia, and other hot spots. So can form an army. Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, State of Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen. Also worth to note, these countries have spent a total of £100, 000, 000, 000 (£100 billion) in new weapons and supplies.
The TAKM is an intergovernmental law enforcement organisation with military status. The members are Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey and Mongolia.
Peninsula Shield Force
The Peninsula Shield Force is the military side of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (aka GCC). It is intended to deter, and respond to, military aggression against any of the GCC member countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Five Power Defence Arrangements
The Five Power Defence Arrangements are a series of defence relationships established by a series of bilateral agreements between the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia and Singapore (all Commonwealth members) signed in 1971, whereby the five states will consult each other in the event of external aggression or threat of attack against Peninsular Malaysia or Singapore.
The Nassau Agreement is between the US and UK. The agreement enabled the UK Polaris programme.
The Collective Security Treaty Organization is an intergovernmental military alliance between Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan. The CSTO charter reaffirmed the desire of all participating states to abstain from the use or threat of force. Signatories would not be able to join other military alliances or other groups of states, while aggression against one signatory would be perceived as an aggression against all.
Mutual Support between Azerbaijan and Turkey
The Agreement on Strategic Partnership and Mutual Support between Azerbaijan and Turkey Where under the terms of the treaty, both Turkey and Azerbaijan will support each other “using all possibilities” in the case of a military attack or aggression against either of the countries.
Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, commonly known as the Non-Proliferation Treaty or NPT, is an international treaty whose objective is to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology. Signed by USA, Russia, France and UK.
In Summary, there are various pacts that link all countries together somehow, everyone is an ally some way.
“War does not determine who is right, but only who is left” – Bertrand Russell
So assuming war breaks out in the coming months due to the Ukrainian conflict, here are perceived stances of the main countries (according to me).
USA stance – The USA would most definitely be one of the biggest players. A country that will lead one side of the war. The military is immense, they spend $612 billion on defence (china, next in line spends $126 billion). Here are some estimations of their military power.
United States Army – They have 1,430,000 soldiers and 850,000 reserves.
United States Navy – They have naval bases around the world and although not the biggest number, the technology is far more advanced. The Navy can deploy around 200,000 Marine Corps on any shore.
United States Air Force – 13, 000 Air craft compared to Second highest Russia’s 3000.
United States Coast Guard – Protect waters around the US. It has around 40, 000 on active duty around the US.
The US will have majority of the European countries by their side and any other- who they have influence on (i.e Israel) or countries they aid financially or those who owe them huge debts. They may also look to secure energy supplies from the Middle East (this will also provide another angle to attack). The US, as selfish as its always has been, will look to get as much support worldwide as it can, Otherwise these ‘selfish pricks’ will drop another nuclear, by justifying it first ofcourse.
Russia’s Stance – Russia will be on the other end of the stick, unless a third country (like Iran) went to war against both of them, they may pool their forces. They have 845,000 soldiers and 2.4m in reserves with plenty of aircraft and naval ships to create destruction to most of Europe over night. Although not so military matched with the US they will manage to give the US a good blow, to get the knockout, they’ll need alliances to attack from the east of the USA like Cuba.
UK, France, Germany and Italy Stance – Highly likely to travel the same way. Combined they have 930, 000 active soldiers and 500, 000 in reserves. The UK bum-licks the US, now combine that with the US figures above. Oh yes!
Germany’s Stance – Germany needs to get a mention since they were at the heart of WW1 and WW2 but their influences are limited at the moment (as part of EU, See above). It could be rebels emerge, or ancestral motives come into play and all of a sudden the Nazis are back. The National Democratic Party of Germany would gain power and the Pols have had it once again! But I highly doubt this would be the case, Zé Germans are highly sophisticated and moving forward very swiftly (and happily), no more war!
China’s stance – China and Ukraine signed a nuclear security pact in December 2013. The conditions: China won’t use any nuclear weapons against Ukraine, and if Ukraine is ever attacked by a nuclear force—or “threatened by such aggression“—China will provide Ukraine with security guarantees. However China says its relationship with Russia is warmer than ever, with China’s People Daily describing it as “one of the most active power relationships [in the world].” Therefore they are under a predicament., in my opinion, based on long term goals and the influence of Russia over them, it is most likely China will join Russia or keep neutral. Russia and China would probably have to form the axis of an anti-US alliance, but they account for only 15% of world military spending, vs 40% by the US alone, and 55% from the US and theie possible allies.
Iran’s Stance – Iran states that they have 13.6 million people who can pick up a weapon at a moment’s notice. While that number is probably exaggerated, it doesn’t matter much anyway – World War III, if it happens, will be mostly an aerial war dependent more on long-range technologies than close-quarters combat. And that, surprisingly, is an example of why not to count Iran out of the picture. They have an air force of 30,000 men with several hundred aircraft, along with cruise missiles with a range of 2,000 kilometers (1,240 mi). That’s plenty of range to hit US bases in the Gulf. However, just as the US and Russia united during World War 2, even though they disagreed with ideology, Iran may, for the time being, join one of the sides.
North Korea’s Stance – Tends to get relegated to the back row in discussions on world powers. They’re potentially dangerous, sure, but it’s a short-range type of danger, similar to the way you can still skip away from a mugger with a knife. But turn your back for too long, and that mugger can sneak up and give you some scars. And since they’re nestled right in the centre of three of the biggest threats to peace at this time, they could—purposely or not—stir up something bigger than themselves, like dropping a starved weasel into a den of sleeping bears. It is likely it will align against the US especially due to S. Korea being a nation that will align to the US therefore N. Korea will be forced to ally with Russia/China.
” Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak” – Sun Tzu
Turkey’s Stance – They are ranked 8th highest on the global military power board. They have 400, 000 active soldiers with an increase every year. Turkey is part of NATO and not so much in favour of Russia as historically have had many tensions. Also Turkey want to become a great Independent nation that thrives like the Ottomans did, they know its impossible alone, thus want to join the EU. So I don’t see them holding ties with the US either because If they become too friendly, the US may have influences over them soon after.
Brazil’s Stance – Apart from US and Canada they stand might in the Americas however their military force isn’t so significant alone, If they joint with Russia, they could attack the US heavily. They have around 330, 000 soldiers and 1.8 million in reserves. However as part of the Rio treaty they most likely will support the US.
Saudi Arabia’s Stance – The Saudis, although a Muslim nation, is ruled by tyrants. In the gulf, Saudi faces a regional battle for influence with Iran, which is anti-US therefore this will likely push the Saudis to the US alliance. As in the news there has been a significant increase in weapons purchased from the US by Saudi and the Gulf countries. Arabs may have a trick up their sleeve.
Israel Stance – The relationship with the US is pretty tight, Its highly likely it will ally with the US & UK. They have around 150,000 active solidiers. Their first hit will be the Palestinians, ‘completely justified’ of course. That may push Egypt and Jordan to support or at least arm the Palestnians.
Pakistan’s & India’s Stance – The Pakistan military (700, 000 active soldiers) is heavily funded by the US, but as we’ve seen over the years, they like to do things their own way, even if sneakily. I think its a nation we shouldn’t under estimate, after all they aren’t afraid to use their nuclear weapons. Their ties with China have been strong economically which has led to militarily ties too. But with India, they are rivals, based on military manpower, India (1.3m active soldiers) could wipe Pakistan.
So Pakistan would need to decide whether to join forces with China or ally with the US. Its likely India will side with the US as India also has disputed borders with China with raising tension.. Or India will remain neutral. If Pakistan wanted to side with the US as well, it is possible for Indo-Pak to make a pact to work together. Point to note is that the Pakistan Elite Military is one of the best in the world, watch out India!
Sub-Saharan Africa Stance – These nations won’t have enough forces to be relevant so probably will support NATO on a large scale or join other Muslim Nations to create a stable Arab Army.
African countries – It’s most likely they will side with NATO or countries that administered them once e.g. The UK, France, Portugal, Denmark, etc. But that would mean liaising with NATO. They could put pressure on the Arab nations from the south.
Oceanic Stance – The Oceanic countries will join UK and US indefinitely.
Japan & South Korea stance – Japan and South Korea are also home to US military bases, and both would be hurt by a victorious China asserting control in the region, so I would guess that they would join the US alliance as well.
Nigerian Stance – Although not a major threat or has major military power. It has 50 million Muslims and a 50 billion Christians, so it would be interesting to see where interests lie as a civil war could even break out. Therefore, maybe the country will stay neutral.
NATO Stance – The NATO council will collectively work together as capitalist/’democratic’ nations in order to prevent inhumane acts by other countries. As in the case of Libya (Ousting Gaddafi), that means, provide full justification based on rumours from the ‘rebels’ then wipe out those who you feel threatened by.
EU Stance – France, Germany, Italy and Belgium voiced support for a common defence for the Union, requiring unanimous support among the member states. Therefore, jointly, the EU member states have 1.5 million troops ready. This would go in to account if all member states cooperated though, otherwise they will ally with either sides. If a war broke out, the EU or NATO would take lead and administer all the nations to work jointly in defending/invading as oppose to a country (I.e the UK) going in to war alone.
Other countries – Countries will support either side based on economic, cultural and social values (also taking in to account the aftermath + long term goals).
States with Nuclear Power – Nuclear power can have an immediate effect on a large area with devastating long term, effects. Although undesirable, at least 5 of the 9 nations will not hesitate to detonate. So those looking to ally, will have to choose carefully.
United States – 7,700 warheads
Russia 8,500 warheads
China 250 warheads
United Kingdom 225 warheads
France 300 warheads
Pakistan 120 warheads
India 110 warheads
North Korea 10 warheads
Israel – Although undeclared, it is believed they have from 60-200 warheads
Cyber Warfare – The on-line communications market isn’t spoken about much on a military scale, but one hack from a Russian teen can send a US Jet Pilot firing missiles to the Empire State Building. Russia and China have the most sophisticated hackers. If Putin, struggles for more power, he may resort to calling hackers forward – Sneaky Russians!
*All figures used are current standings, lets not forget compulsory participation in major war, numbers would increase immensely!*
In order to develop a clearer picture, let’s say War broke out against the US and Russia…
|Thailand||Uganda||United Arab Emirates|
The neutral countries may choose a side based on economic and/or social values.
“I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.” – Albert Einstein
Say, war was between China and USA, Russia would back China, so the above analysis remains the same. Or if Iran was to strike against Israel, the result will match up similarly. If I come across anything else that’s interesting, ill leave a comment below.
Based on military and might, the US seem to have the upper hand but in terms of manpower available the other side will be able to instantly take over Europe. Maybe in fact there will be no winners due to Nuclear bombs, a Nuclear winter will practically destroy mankind. The way the US justified the atomic droppings on Hiroshima and Nagasaki shows what they’ll resort too. Check out these pics on Post-Vietnam.
Personally, I think it’ll be a game of ‘call my bluff’, then someone will get it right (or wrong), and bam! So I suggest you fill your basement with supplies.
You’ve all heard about the New World Order, Rothschild, Federal Reserve, The Zionists, Freemasons and the Illuminati. Plenty of conspiracies/facts about them all. Maybe they’ll take lead finally and rule the world?
Islam, Christianity and Judaism share knowledge on the coming of a Messiah, one who shall come when times are bad. A common prophecy is the increase in floods and earthquakes, and a deluded society. I think you’ll agree the end times are very near! As well as this there are nearly 2 Billion Muslims, once the Mahdi appears, it will be incumbent on Muslims to unite, never the less, that doesn’t mean they won’t sooner.
Maybe they are being assembled as we speak. Doubt superman exists but the likes of the armour from GI Joe seems promising!
If you feel I’ve missed something out, feel free to contribute. All data/facts have been sourced from official sites and journals/reports.
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